Bitcoin Cycle Indicators Compared: S2F, MVRV, Rainbow & More

Bitcoin Market Cycle Indicators at a Glance

Bitcoin market cycle indicators attempt to identify whether Bitcoin is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to historical patterns. Traders and analysts use these models to gauge where Bitcoin sits within its multi-year boom-and-bust cycles, which have historically aligned with the four-year halving schedule.

No single indicator has a perfect track record. The October 2025 cycle top at $126,198 exposed a collective failure: none of the major on-chain top indicators fired a clean sell signal before the 52% correction that followed. Understanding each model's methodology, historical accuracy, and known blind spots is essential before using any of them to inform decisions.

Stock-to-Flow (S2F)

The Stock-to-Flow model, published by pseudonymous analyst PlanB in March 2019, calculates Bitcoin's scarcity ratio as existing supply (stock) divided by annual new issuance (flow). The price model uses the formula: Price = 0.18 × (S/F)^3.3. After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin's S2F ratio sits at approximately 113 to 121, nearly double gold's ratio of ~62.

The model tracked reasonably well from 2012 to 2020, with the 2013 and 2017 cycle peaks actually printing above the model line. It broke down in 2021: PlanB's floor model predicted $98,000 for November and $135,000 for December 2021. Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 and closed the year at $47,000. The model currently projects an average price of approximately $500,000 for this halving epoch, while Bitcoin trades near $66,000: a 7x overshoot.

The core flaw is that S2F models only the supply side of the equation. It ignores demand-side variables: macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, regulatory shifts, and institutional flow dynamics. Multiple analysts now characterize the model as functionally invalidated, with Bitcoin trading persistently below the S2F trend line since 2021. For a deeper analysis of whether the halving cycle itself is weakening, see our research on whether the four-year cycle is dead.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized cap: the value of every UTXO priced at the moment it last moved on-chain. The formula is: Z-Score = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Std Dev(Market Cap). The ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018; the Z-Score normalization was added by the analyst "Awe & Wonder" later that year.

Readings above ~7 indicate extreme overvaluation (red zone), while readings below ~0 indicate extreme undervaluation (green zone). The indicator successfully entered the green zone at every major cycle bottom: 2011, 2015, late 2018, and late 2022 when Bitcoin dropped to ~$16,000. It reached elevated levels near the April 2021 peak at $64,800 but failed to enter the red zone at the November 2021 ultimate top of $69,000 or the October 2025 top of $126,198.

As of July 21, 2026, the MVRV Z-Score sits at 0.42 with the raw MVRV ratio at 1.27. The realized price is approximately $52,478, meaning Bitcoin at ~$66,000 trades roughly 25% above the aggregate cost basis of all holders. Short-term holders are underwater (MVRV ratio 0.98) while long-term holders remain in profit (1.35). This is the lowest Z-Score reading since the 2022 bear market.

Rainbow Chart

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart fits a logarithmic regression curve to Bitcoin's entire price history and overlays color-coded bands ranging from "Basically a Fire Sale" (deep blue) to "Maximum Bubble Territory" (dark red). The modern version was assembled by the pseudonymous contributor "Uber Holger" in 2018, combining earlier work by Reddit user "azop" and BitcoinTalk user "trolololo."

The chart's creator openly states that the color bands are "completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis." It is not a predictive model: it simply shows where the current price sits relative to a long-term logarithmic trend. The 2013 and 2017 peaks touched the dark red "Maximum Bubble" band, but the 2021 peak at $69,000 only reached the orange/yellow bands, never entering the top tier.

As of late July 2026, Bitcoin at ~$66,000 sits in the "Basically a Fire Sale" band, the lowest tier the model offers. The upper band boundary ("Maximum Bubble Territory") sits near $517,000. Some analysts argue the Rainbow Chart itself may be breaking in real time, as Bitcoin has spent an unusually extended period in or below the lowest band: a condition not seen at this stage in prior post-halving cycles.

Pi Cycle Top

The Pi Cycle Top indicator, created by Philip Swift (founder of LookIntoBitcoin), tracks two moving averages: the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and the 350-day moving average multiplied by 2 (350DMA × 2). A sell signal fires when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA × 2. The ratio between 350 and 111 approximates Pi (3.153), which gives the indicator its name.

Prior to 2025, the Pi Cycle Top had a remarkable track record. It called the April 2013 top within 3 days, the December 2017 top within 3 days, and the April 2021 top within 2 days (signal fired April 12 at ~$63,000; actual peak reached $64,800 on April 14, followed by a 53% decline). However, it did not signal the November 2021 ultimate peak of $69,000.

In the 2025 cycle, the Pi Cycle Top failed to fire for the first time in Bitcoin's history. Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 on October 6, 2025, but the 111DMA never crossed above the 350DMA × 2. The moving averages remained stubbornly apart. Analysts attribute this to structural market changes: institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries created a slower, steadier accumulation pattern rather than the parabolic blow-off top the indicator was designed to detect.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

NUPL measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders using the formula: NUPL = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap. It was originally developed by Adamant Capital and further refined by Rafael Schultze-Kraft, CTO of Glassnode. When NUPL is positive, the average holder is in profit. When negative, the average holder is at a loss.

The model defines five sentiment zones: Euphoria (above 0.75, cycle top territory), Greed/Belief (0.50 to 0.75), Optimism (0.25 to 0.50), Hope/Anxiety (0.0 to 0.25), and Capitulation (below 0.0, cycle bottoms). NUPL successfully entered Euphoria at the 2013 and 2017 tops and during the April 2021 spike. It went negative during the 2022 bear market, correctly flagging capitulation. However, it reached only 0.738 at the November 2021 top (below the 0.75 threshold) and never broke above 0.75 at the October 2025 $126,000 peak.

As of early July 2026, NUPL reads approximately 0.12, placing Bitcoin in the Hope/Anxiety zone. This is a sharp decline from ~0.29 in mid-April 2026 and reflects the 52%+ correction from the cycle high.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple, created by David Puell in March 2019, divides daily miner revenue (in USD) by its 365-day moving average: Puell Multiple = Daily Miner Revenue / 365-Day MA(Miner Revenue). Daily miner revenue includes the block subsidy plus transaction fees, multiplied by Bitcoin's spot price.

Readings above 4.0 indicate miner euphoria: miners are earning far above their annual norm and are heavily incentivized to sell. Readings below 0.5 indicate deep miner capitulation, which has historically marked the best accumulation opportunities. The Puell Multiple entered the red zone at the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops. Readings below 0.5 occurred in 2012, 2015, late 2018, the March 2020 COVID crash, and July 2022 (when it reached 0.35). The median 180-day gain following sub-0.65 readings has been approximately 55%.

The current reading as of late June 2026 is 0.75: below the 365-day average but not yet in the deep capitulation zone. The April 2024 halving mechanically halved the block subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, causing a structural downward reset in the numerator. This makes post-halving Puell Multiple readings harder to compare directly with pre-halving levels.

Reserve Risk

Reserve Risk, introduced by analyst Hans Hauge, measures the risk-reward of investing in Bitcoin relative to long-term holder conviction. The formula is: Reserve Risk = Price / HODL Bank, where the HODL Bank is the cumulative sum of age-weighted Coin Days Destroyed valued in USD. As long-term holders refuse to sell, the HODL Bank accumulates, representing the growing opportunity cost of not selling.

Low Reserve Risk (below ~0.002) indicates high holder conviction relative to price: a favorable risk/reward setup for accumulation. High Reserve Risk suggests holders are spending their accumulated conviction (selling old coins), which historically occurs near cycle peaks. The indicator successfully identified favorable accumulation zones at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycle bottoms. Like every other on-chain indicator, it did not reach extreme "sell" levels during the October 2025 peak.

The current reading is in low territory, consistent with the broader on-chain picture: MVRV Z-Score at 0.42, NUPL at 0.12, and the Fear & Greed Index at Extreme Fear. All point toward conditions historically associated with cycle bottoms rather than tops.

Why Every Top Indicator Failed in 2025

The October 2025 cycle top at $126,198 was the first Bitcoin peak where none of the major on-chain top indicators fired a clean sell signal. MVRV Z-Score stayed well below the red zone. Pi Cycle Top never crossed. NUPL remained below 0.75. Reserve Risk stayed moderate. This collective failure points to a structural shift in how Bitcoin markets behave.

The cause is market structure evolution. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, introduced institutional demand that operates differently from the retail-driven speculation these indicators were calibrated on. Corporate treasuries and fund allocators buy steadily and programmatically rather than in the panic-buying, euphoria-driven surges that produce the sharp on-chain signals these models detect.

The result is a market that peaks and corrects without the traditional blow-off top. Bitcoin rose from ~$64,000 at the April 2024 halving to $126,198 in October 2025: a 98% gain over 18 months, then corrected 52% to below $58,500 by late June 2026. The move was significant, but it unfolded gradually enough that on-chain metrics never reached the extreme readings associated with prior cycle tops. The indicators are not necessarily broken: the market structure they were designed to measure may no longer exist in its original form.

Indicator Reliability Scorecard

The following table evaluates each indicator's track record across the last four complete market cycles for identifying tops (sell signals) and bottoms (buy signals).

Key takeaway: On-chain indicators remain far more reliable at identifying cycle bottoms (accumulation opportunities) than cycle tops (sell signals). Bottom signals rely on aggregate holder cost basis, which is a concrete on-chain measurement. Top signals depend on detecting euphoria, which is a behavioral phenomenon that institutional markets may not exhibit the same way retail markets do.

Using Multiple Indicators Together

No single indicator should drive investment decisions. The strongest signals come from confluence: multiple independent indicators pointing in the same direction simultaneously. As of mid-July 2026, six of the seven indicators discussed here point toward accumulation-zone conditions:

• MVRV Z-Score at 0.42 (near the green zone threshold)
• NUPL at 0.12 (Hope/Anxiety, near historical bottoming range)
• Puell Multiple at 0.75 (below annual average)
• Reserve Risk in low territory (high holder conviction)
• Rainbow Chart in the "Fire Sale" band
• Fear & Greed Index at Extreme Fear (24)

However, confluence of bottom signals does not guarantee an immediate reversal. During the 2022 bear market, similar readings persisted for months before the recovery began. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has pointed to October 2026 as a base case for the bear market bottom, suggesting the current accumulation phase could extend further.

For Bitcoin holders who want to track their position relative to the broader market, on-chain indicators are most useful alongside dollar-cost averaging strategies rather than as timing tools. A DCA calculator can help model different accumulation scenarios regardless of where cycle indicators point.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most accurate Bitcoin cycle indicator?

No single indicator has been consistently accurate across all cycles. The MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple have the strongest overall track records, particularly for identifying cycle bottoms. The Pi Cycle Top was remarkably precise for calling tops through April 2021 (within 2 to 3 days) but failed entirely in the 2025 cycle. The S2F model, once the most popular, has been functionally invalidated since 2021 with price predictions diverging from reality by 7x or more.

Is the Stock-to-Flow model still valid?

The S2F model is widely considered invalidated. Its current-epoch prediction of approximately $500,000 overshoots Bitcoin's actual price of ~$66,000 by roughly 7x. Bitcoin has traded below the S2F trend line since 2021. The model's fundamental limitation is that it accounts only for supply scarcity while ignoring demand-side factors: interest rates, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and institutional flow dynamics. While defenders argue it remains "directionally valid," its specific price predictions have been off by $130,000 or more.

What does the MVRV Z-Score tell you about Bitcoin?

The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap (the aggregate cost basis of all holders) and normalizes the difference by historical volatility. Readings near or below zero indicate that Bitcoin is trading at or below the average acquisition price of all holders: historically the best accumulation zone. Readings above 7 indicate extreme overvaluation. The current reading of 0.42 suggests neutral to slightly undervalued conditions, with the realized price (aggregate cost basis) at approximately $52,478.

Why did Bitcoin cycle indicators fail to predict the 2025 top?

The collective failure stems from a structural shift in Bitcoin's market composition. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, introduced institutional demand that accumulates steadily and programmatically rather than through the panic-buying euphoria that traditional on-chain indicators detect. The October 2025 peak at $126,198 was not a blow-off top: it was a gradual rollover from institutional rebalancing. Without the extreme on-chain behavior these models were calibrated on, none generated a sell signal.

Can you use Bitcoin cycle indicators to time the market?

These indicators are better understood as context tools than timing tools. They excel at identifying broad zones (extreme undervaluation vs. extreme overvaluation) but are unreliable for pinpointing exact tops or bottoms. Their bottom-detection capability remains stronger than their top-detection capability. Most analysts recommend using them to inform a dollar-cost averaging strategy (increasing allocation in accumulation zones, reducing in euphoria zones) rather than making all-or-nothing timing calls.

What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart showing right now?

As of late July 2026, the Rainbow Chart places Bitcoin in the "Basically a Fire Sale" band, the lowest tier available. The chart's creator has acknowledged that the color bands are "completely arbitrary," and some analysts argue the model is losing relevance as Bitcoin spends an unusual amount of time in or below the lowest band during this post-halving period.

What is the Puell Multiple and how does the halving affect it?

The Puell Multiple divides daily miner revenue by its 365-day moving average. Each halving mechanically halves the block subsidy, which causes a structural downward reset in the numerator. This means post-halving readings tend to appear lower than they would otherwise, making direct comparisons with pre-halving readings misleading. The indicator remains useful for identifying miner capitulation (readings below 0.5), but the halving effect introduces a bias that takes roughly 12 months for the 365-day average to absorb.

This tool is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Indicator readings cited are based on publicly available on-chain data as of mid-July 2026 and change continuously. Past indicator performance does not guarantee future accuracy. Always verify current readings on the original data sources before making investment decisions.